Study design approaches for future active-controlled HIV prevention trials.

Objectives: Vigorous discussions are ongoing about future efficacy trial designs of candidate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention interventions. The study design challenges of HIV prevention interventions are considerable given rapid evolution of the prevention landscape and evidence of multiple modalities of highly effective products; future trials will likely be 'active-controlled', i.e., not include a placebo arm. Thus, novel design approaches are needed to accurately assess new interventions against these highly effective active controls. Methods: To discuss active control design challenges and identify solutions, an initial virtual workshop series was hosted and supported by the International AIDS Enterprise (October 2020-March 2021). Subsequent symposia discussions continue to advance these efforts. As the non-inferiority design is an important conceptual reference design for guiding active control trials, we adopt several of its principles in our proposed design approaches. Results: We discuss six potential study design approaches for formally evaluating absolute prevention efficacy given data from an active-controlled HIV prevention trial including using data from: 1) a registrational cohort, 2) recency assays, 3) an external trial placebo arm, 4) a biomarker of HIV incidence/exposure, 5) an anti-retroviral drug concentration as a mediator of prevention efficacy, and 6) immune biomarkers as a mediator of prevention efficacy. Conclusions: Our understanding of these proposed novel approaches to future trial designs remains incomplete and there are many future statistical research needs. Yet, each of these approaches, within the context of an active-controlled trial, have the potential to yield reliable evidence of efficacy for future biomedical interventions.

Estimating the Effect of PrEP in Black Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Framework to Utilize Data from Multiple Non-Randomized Studies to Estimate Causal Effects.

Black men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately burdened by the HIV epidemic in the US. The effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in preventing HIV infection has been demonstrated through randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials in several populations. Importantly, no such trial has been conducted exclusively among Black MSM in the US, and it would be unethical and infeasible to do so now. To estimate the causal effects of PrEP access, initiation, and adherence on HIV risk, we utilized causal inference methods to combine data from two non-randomized studies that exclusively enrolled Black MSM. The estimated relative risks of HIV were: (i) 0.52 (95% confidence interval: 0.21, 1.22) for individuals with versus without PrEP access, (ii) 0.48 (0.12, 0.89) for individuals who initiated PrEP but were not adherent versus those who did not initiate, and (iii) 0.23 (0.02, 0.80) for individuals who were adherent to PrEP versus those who did not initiate. Beyond addressing the knowledge gap around the effect of PrEP in Black MSM in the US, which may have ramifications for public health, we have provided a framework to combine data from multiple non-randomized studies to estimate causal effects, which has broad utility.

Comparison of Empirically Derived and Model-Based Estimates of Key Population HIV Incidence and the Distribution of New Infections by Population Group in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: The distribution of new HIV infections among key populations, including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) are essential information to guide an HIV response, but data are limited in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We analyzed empirically derived and mathematical model-based estimates of HIV incidence among key populations and compared with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates. METHODS: We estimated HIV incidence among FSW and MSM in SSA by combining meta-analyses of empirical key population HIV incidence relative to the total population incidence with key population size estimates (KPSE) and HIV prevalence. Dynamic HIV transmission model estimates of HIV incidence and percentage of new infections among key populations were extracted from 94 country applications of 9 mathematical models. We compared these with UNAIDS-reported distribution of new infections, implied key population HIV incidence and incidence-to-prevalence ratios. RESULTS: Across SSA, empirical FSW HIV incidence was 8.6-fold (95% confidence interval: 5.7 to 12.9) higher than total population female 15-39 year incidence, and MSM HIV incidence was 41.8-fold (95% confidence interval: 21.9 to 79.6) male 15-29 year incidence. Combined with KPSE, these implied 12% of new HIV infections in 2021 were among FSW and MSM (5% and 7% respectively). In sensitivity analysis varying KPSE proportions within 95% uncertainty range, the proportion of new infections among FSW and MSM was between 9% and 19%. Insufficient data were available to estimate PWID incidence rate ratios. Across 94 models, median proportion of new infections among FSW, MSM, and PWID was 6.4% (interquartile range 3.2%-11.7%), both much lower than the 25% reported by UNAIDS. CONCLUSION: Empirically derived and model-based estimates of HIV incidence confirm dramatically higher HIV risk among key populations in SSA. Estimated proportions of new infections among key populations in 2021 were sensitive to population size assumptions and were substantially lower than estimates reported by UNAIDS.

Measuring HIV Acquisitions Among Partners of Key Populations: Estimates From HIV Transmission Dynamic Models.

BACKGROUND: Key populations (KPs), including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), and transgender women (TGW) experience disproportionate risks of HIV acquisition. The UNAIDS Global AIDS 2022 Update reported that one-quarter of all new HIV infections occurred among their non-KP sexual partners. However, this fraction relied on heuristics regarding the ratio of new infections that KPs transmitted to their non-KP partners to the new infections acquired among KPs (herein referred to as "infection ratios"). We recalculated these ratios using dynamic transmission models. SETTING: One hundred seventy-eight settings (106 countries). METHODS: Infection ratios for FSW, MSM, PWID, TGW, and clients of FSW were estimated from 12 models for 2020. RESULTS: Median model estimates of infection ratios were 0.7 (interquartile range: 0.5-1.0; n = 172 estimates) and 1.2 (0.8-1.8; n = 127) for acquisitions from FSW clients and transmissions from FSW to all their non-KP partners, respectively, which were comparable with the previous UNAIDS assumptions (0.2-1.5 across regions). Model estimates for female partners of MSM were 0.5 (0.2-0.8; n = 20) and 0.3 (0.2-0.4; n = 10) for partners of PWID across settings in Eastern and Southern Africa, lower than the corresponding UNAIDS assumptions (0.9 and 0.8, respectively). The few available model estimates for TGW were higher [5.1 (1.2-7.0; n = 8)] than the UNAIDS assumptions (0.1-0.3). Model estimates for non-FSW partners of FSW clients in Western and Central Africa were high (1.7; 1.0-2.3; n = 29). CONCLUSIONS: Ratios of new infections among non-KP partners relative to KP were high, confirming the importance of better addressing prevention and treatment needs among KP as central to reducing overall HIV incidence.

Estimating counterfactual placebo HIV incidence in HIV prevention trials without placebo arms based on markers of HIV exposure.

INTRODUCTION: Developing alternative approaches to evaluating absolute efficacy of new HIV prevention interventions is a priority, as active-controlled designs, whereby individuals without HIV are randomized to the experimental intervention or an active control known to be effective, are increasing. With this design, however, the efficacy of the experimental intervention to prevent HIV acquisition relative to placebo cannot be evaluated directly. METHODS: One proposed approach to estimate absolute prevention efficacy is to use an HIV exposure marker, such as incident rectal gonorrhea, to infer counterfactual placebo HIV incidence. We formalize a statistical framework for this approach, specify working regression and likelihood-based estimation approaches, lay out three assumptions under which valid inference can be achieved, evaluate finite-sample performance, and illustrate the approach using a recent active-controlled HIV prevention trial. RESULTS: We find that in finite samples and under correctly specified assumptions accurate and precise estimates of counterfactual placebo incidence and prevention efficacy are produced. Based on data from the DISCOVER trial in men and transgender women who have sex with men, and assuming correctly specified assumptions, the estimated prevention efficacy for tenofovir alafenamide plus emtricitabine is 98.1% (95% confidence interval: 96.4%-99.4%) using the working model approach and 98.1% (95% confidence interval: 96.4%-99.7%) using the likelihood-based approach. CONCLUSION: Careful assessment of the underlying assumptions, study of their violation, evaluation of the approach in trials with placebo arms, and advancement of improved exposure markers are needed before the HIV exposure marker approach can be relied upon in practice.

Demographics of sources of HIV-1 transmission in Zambia: a molecular epidemiology analysis in the HPTN 071 PopART study.

BACKGROUND: In the last decade, universally available antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to greatly improved health and survival of people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, but new infections continue to appear. The design of effective prevention strategies requires the demographic characterisation of individuals acting as sources of infection, which is the aim of this study. METHODS: Between 2014 and 2018, the HPTN 071 PopART study was conducted to quantify the public health benefits of ART. Viral samples from 7124 study participants in Zambia were deep-sequenced as part of HPTN 071-02 PopART Phylogenetics, an ancillary study. We used these sequences to identify likely transmission pairs. After demographic weighting of the recipients in these pairs to match the overall HIV-positive population, we analysed the demographic characteristics of the sources to better understand transmission in the general population. FINDINGS: We identified a total of 300 likely transmission pairs. 178 (59·4%) were male to female, with 130 (95% CI 110-150; 43·3%) from males aged 25-40 years. Overall, men transmitted 2·09-fold (2·06-2·29) more infections per capita than women, a ratio peaking at 5·87 (2·78-15·8) in the 35-39 years source age group. 40 (26-57; 13·2%) transmissions linked individuals from different communities in the trial. Of 288 sources with recorded information on drug resistance mutations, 52 (38-69; 18·1%) carried viruses resistant to first-line ART. INTERPRETATION: HIV-1 transmission in the HPTN 071 study communities comes from a wide range of age and sex groups, and there is no outsized contribution to new infections from importation or drug resistance mutations. Men aged 25-39 years, underserved by current treatment and prevention services, should be prioritised for HIV testing and ART. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute on Drug Abuse, and National Institute of Mental Health.

Durability of single-dose HPV vaccination in young Kenyan women: randomized controlled trial 3-year results.

Cervical cancer burden is high where prophylactic vaccination and screening coverage are low. We demonstrated in a multicenter randomized, double-blind, controlled trial that single-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination had high vaccine efficacy (VE) against persistent infection at 18 months in Kenyan women. Here, we report findings of this trial through 3 years of follow-up. Overall, 2,275 healthy women aged 15-20 years were recruited and randomly assigned to receive bivalent (n = 760), nonavalent (n = 758) or control (n = 757) vaccine. The primary outcome was incident-persistent vaccine type-specific cervical HPV infection. The primary evaluation was superiority analysis in the modified intention-to-treat (mITT) HPV 16/18 and HPV 16/18/31/33/45/52/58 cohorts. The trial met its prespecified end points of vaccine type-specific persistent HPV infection. A total of 75 incident-persistent infections were detected in the HPV 16/18 mITT cohort: 2 in the bivalent group, 1 in the nonavalent group and 72 in the control group. Nonavalent VE was 98.8% (95% CI 91.3-99.8%, P < 0.0001) and bivalent VE was 97.5% (95% CI 90.0-99.4%, P < 0.0001). Overall, 89 persistent infections were detected in the HPV 16/18/31/33/45/52/58 mITT cohort: 5 in the nonavalent group and 84 in the control group; nonavalent VE was 95.5% (95% CI 89.0-98.2%, P < 0.0001). There were no vaccine-related severe adverse events. Three years after vaccination, single-dose HPV vaccination was highly efficacious, safe and conferred durable protection. ClinicalTrials.gov no. NCT03675256 .

Adaptive Time Location Sampling for COMPASS, A SARS-COV-2 Prevalence Study in Fifteen Diverse Communities in The United States.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has placed a disproportionate burden on underserved racial and ethnic groups, community members working in essential industries, those living in areas of high population density, and those reliant on in-person services such as transportation. The goal of this study was to estimate the cross-sectional prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (active SARS-CoV-2 or prior SARS-CoV-2 infection) in children and adults attending public venues in 15 socio-demographically diverse communities in the United States, and to develop a statistical design that could be rigorously implemented amidst unpredictable stay-at-home COVID-19 guidelines. METHODS: We used time-location sampling with complex sampling involving stratification, clustering of units, and unequal probabilities of selection to recruit individuals from selected communities. We safely conducted informed consent, specimen collection, and face-to-face interviews outside of public venues immediately following recruitment. RESULTS: We developed an innovative sampling design that adapted to constraints such as closure of venues; changing infection hotspots; and uncertain policies. We updated both the sampling frame and the selection probabilities over time using information acquired from prior weeks. We created site-specific survey weights that adjusted sampling probabilities for nonresponse and calibrated to county-level margins on age and sex at birth. CONCLUSIONS: Although the study itself was specific to COVID-19, the strategies presented in this paper could serve as a case study that can be adapted for performing population-level inferences in similar settings and could help inform rapid and effective responses to future global public health challenges.

Doxycycline Prophylaxis to Prevent Sexually Transmitted Infections in Women.

BACKGROUND: Doxycycline postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) has been shown to prevent sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among cisgender men and transgender women, but data from trials involving cisgender women are lacking. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, open-label trial comparing doxycycline PEP (doxycycline hyclate, 200 mg taken within 72 hours after condomless sex) with standard care among Kenyan women 18 to 30 years of age who were receiving preexposure prophylaxis against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The primary end point was any incident infection with Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, or Treponema pallidum. Hair samples were collected quarterly for objective assessment of doxycycline use. RESULTS: A total of 449 participants underwent randomization; 224 were assigned to the doxycycline-PEP group and 225 to the standard-care group. Participants were followed quarterly over 12 months. A total of 109 incident STIs occurred (50 in the doxycycline-PEP group [25.1 per 100 person-years] and 59 in the standard-care group [29.0 per 100 person-years]), with no significant between-group difference in incidence (relative risk, 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60 to 1.29; P = 0.51). Among the 109 incident STIs, chlamydia accounted for 85 (78.0%) (35 in the doxycycline-PEP group and 50 in the standard-care group; relative risk, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.47 to 1.13). No serious adverse events were considered by the trial investigators to be related to doxycycline, and there were no incident HIV infections. Among 50 randomly selected participants in the doxycycline-PEP group, doxycycline was detected in 58 of 200 hair samples (29.0%). All N. gonorrhoeae-positive isolates were resistant to doxycycline. CONCLUSIONS: Among cisgender women, the incidence of STIs was not significantly lower with doxycycline PEP than with standard care. According to hair-sample analysis, the use of doxycycline PEP among those assigned to receive it was low. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; dPEP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04050540.).

Efficacy and safety of long-acting cabotegravir compared with daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine to prevent HIV infection in cisgender men and transgender women who have sex with men 1 year after study unblinding: a secondary analysis of the phase 2b and 3 HPTN 083 randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Injectable cabotegravir was superior to daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine for HIV prevention in two clinical trials. Both trials had the primary aim of establishing the HIV prevention efficacy of long-acting injectable cabotegravir pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) compared with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine daily oral PrEP. Long-acting PrEP was associated with diagnostic delays and integrase strand-transfer inhibitor (INSTI) resistance. This report presents findings from the first unblinded year of the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 083 study. METHODS: The HPTN 083 randomised controlled trial enrolled HIV-uninfected cisgender men and transgender women at elevated HIV risk who have sex with men, from 43 clinical research sites in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the USA. Inclusion criteria included: a negative HIV serological test at the screening and study entry, undetectable HIV RNA levels within 14 days of study entry, age 18 years or older, overall good health as determined by clinical and laboratory evaluations, and a creatinine clearance of 60 mL/min or higher. Participants were randomly allocated to receive long-acting injectable cabotegravir or daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine PrEP. After study unblinding, participants remained on their original regimen awaiting an extension study. HIV infections were characterised retrospectively at a central laboratory. Here we report the secondary analysis of efficacy and safety for the first unblinded year. The primary outcome was incident HIV infection. Efficacy analyses were done on the modified intention-to-treat population using a Cox regression model. Adverse events were compared across treatment groups and time periods (blinded vs unblinded). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02720094. FINDINGS: Of the 4488 participants who contributed person-time to the blinded analysis, 3290 contributed person-time to the first unblinded year analysis between May 15, 2020, and May 14, 2021. Updated HIV incidence in the blinded phase was 0·41 per 100 person-years for long-acting injectable cabotegravir PrEP and 1·29 per 100 person-years for daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine PrEP (hazard ratio [HR] 0·31 [95% CI 0·17-0·58], p=0·0003). HIV incidence in the first unblinded year was 0·82 per 100 person-years for long-acting PrEP and 2·27 per 100 person-years for daily oral PrEP (HR 0·35 [0·18-0·69], p=0·002). Adherence to both study products decreased after study unblinding. Additional infections in the long-acting PrEP group included two with on-time injections; three with one or more delayed injections; two detected with long-acting PrEP reinitiation; and 11 more than 6 months after their last injection. Infection within 6 months of cabotegravir exposure was associated with diagnostic delays and INSTI resistance. Adverse events were generally consistent with previous reports; incident hypertension in the long-acting PrEP group requires further investigation. INTERPRETATION: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir PrEP retained high efficacy for HIV prevention in men and transgender women who have sex with men during the first year of open-label follow-up, with a near-identical HR for HIV risk reduction between long-acting injectable cabotegravir and daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine PrEP during the first year after unblinding compared with the blinded period. Extended follow-up further defined the risk period for diagnostic delays and emergence of INSTI resistance. FUNDING: Division of AIDS at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, ViiV Healthcare, and Gilead Sciences.

Adults on pre-exposure prophylaxis (tenofovir-emtricitabine) have faster clearance of anti-HIV monoclonal antibody VRC01.

Broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are being developed for HIV-1 prevention. Hence, these mAbs and licensed oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) (tenofovir-emtricitabine) can be concomitantly administered in clinical trials. In 48 US participants (men and transgender persons who have sex with men) who received the HIV-1 mAb VRC01 and remained HIV-free in an antibody-mediated-prevention trial (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT02716675), we conduct a post-hoc analysis and find that VRC01 clearance is 0.08 L/day faster (p = 0.005), and dose-normalized area-under-the-curve of VRC01 serum concentration over-time is 0.29 day/mL lower (p < 0.001) in PrEP users (n = 24) vs. non-PrEP users (n = 24). Consequently, PrEP users are predicted to have 14% lower VRC01 neutralization-mediated prevention efficacy against circulating HIV-1 strains. VRC01 clearance is positively associated (r = 0.33, p = 0.03) with levels of serum intestinal Fatty Acid Binding protein (I-FABP), a marker of epithelial intestinal permeability, which is elevated upon starting PrEP (p = 0.04) and after months of self-reported use (p = 0.001). These findings have implications for the evaluation of future HIV-1 mAbs and postulate a potential mechanism for mAb clearance in the context of PrEP.

Population-level analysis of natural control of HIV infection in Zambia and South Africa: HPTN 071 (PopART).

INTRODUCTION: HIV controllers have low viral loads (VL) without antiretroviral treatment (ART). We evaluated viraemic control in a community-randomized trial conducted in Zambia and South Africa that evaluated the impact of a combination prevention intervention on HIV incidence (HPTN 071 [PopART]; 2013-2018). METHODS: VL and antiretroviral (ARV) drug testing were performed using plasma samples collected 2 years after enrolment for 4072 participants who were HIV positive at the start of the study intervention. ARV drug use was assessed using a qualitative laboratory assay that detects 22 ARV drugs in five drug classes. Participants were classified as non-controllers if they had a VL ≥2000 copies/ml with no ARV drugs detected at this visit. Additional VL and ARV drug testing was performed at a second annual study visit to confirm controller status. Participants were classified as controllers if they had VLs <2000 with no ARV drugs detected at both visits. Non-controllers who had ARV drugs detected at either visit were excluded from the analysis to minimize potential confounders associated with ARV drug access and uptake. RESULTS: The final cohort included 126 viraemic controllers and 766 non-controllers who had no ARV drugs detected. The prevalence of controllers among the 4072 persons assessed was 3.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.6%, 3.6%). This should be considered a minimum estimate, since high rates of ARV drug use in the parent study limited the ability to identify controllers. Among the 892 participants in the final cohort, controller status was associated with biological sex (female > male, p = 0.027). There was no significant association between controller status and age, study country or herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) status at study enrolment. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this report presents the first large-scale, population-level study evaluating the prevalence of viraemic control and associated factors in Africa. A key advantage of this study was that a biomedical assessment was used to assess ARV drug use (vs. self-reported data). This study identified a large cohort of HIV controllers and non-controllers not taking ARV drugs, providing a unique repository of longitudinal samples for additional research. This cohort may be useful for further studies investigating the mechanisms of virologic control.

Efficacy, safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics of long-acting injectable cabotegravir for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in transgender women: a secondary analysis of the HPTN 083 trial.

BACKGROUND: The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 083 trial showed that long-acting injectable cabotegravir was more effective than tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine in preventing HIV in cisgender men and transgender women who have sex with men. We aimed to characterise the cohort of transgender women included in HPTN 083. METHODS: HPTN 083 is an ongoing, phase 2b/3, randomised, multicentre, double-blind, double-dummy clinical trial done at 43 sites in seven countries (Argentina, Brazil, Peru, the USA, South Africa, Thailand, and Viet Nam). HIV-negative participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive injectable cabotegravir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine. The study design and primary outcomes of the blinded phase of HPTN 083 have already been reported. An enrolment minimum of 10% transgender women was set for the trial. Here we characterise the cohort of transgender women enrolled from Dec 6, 2016, to May 14, 2020, when the study was unblinded. We report sociodemographic characteristics, use of gender affirming hormone therapy, and behavioural assessments of the transgender women participants. Laboratory testing and safety evaluations are also reported. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02720094. FINDINGS: HPTN 083 enrolled 570 transgender women (304 tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine; 266 injectable cabotegravir). Transgender women were primarily from Asia (225 [39%]) and Latin America (205 [36%]); 330 (58%) reported using gender affirming hormone therapy. Intimate partner violence was common (270 [47%] reported emotional abuse and 172 [30%] reported physical abuse) and 323 (57%) reported a history of childhood sexual abuse. 159 (28%) transgender women disagreed that they were at risk for HIV, and 142 (25%) screened positive for depressive symptoms. During study follow-up, incidence of syphilis was 16·25% (95% CI 13·28-19·69), rectal gonorrhoea was 11·66% (9·14-14·66), and chlamydia was 20·61% (17·20-24·49). Frequency of adverse events was similar between the treatment groups. Nine seroconversions occurred among transgender women during the blinded phase of the study (seven in the tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine group and two in the injectable cabotegravir group); overall incidence was 1·19 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·54-2·25): 1·80 per 100 person-years (0·73-3·72) in the tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine group and 0·54 per 100 person-years (0·07-1·95) in the injectable cabotegravir group (hazard ratio 0·34 [95% CI 0·08-1·56]). Cabotegravir concentrations did not differ by gender affirming hormone therapy use. INTERPRETATION: HIV prevention strategies for transgender women cannot be addressed separately from social and structural vulnerabilities. Transgender women were well represented in HPTN 083 and should continue to be prioritised in HIV prevention studies. Our results suggest that injectable cabotegravir is a safe and effective pre-exposure prophylaxis option for transgender women. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and ViiV Healthcare.

Efficacy estimates of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in cisgender women with partial adherence.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir (TFV) disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine administered orally daily is effective in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition in both men and women with sufficient adherence; however, the adherence-efficacy relationship in cisgender women has not been well established. We calculated the adherence-efficacy curve for cisgender women by using HIV incidence and plasma TFV concentration data from three trials (FEM-PrEP, VOICE and Partners PrEP). We imputed TFV diphosphate (TFV-DP) concentrations, a measure of long-term adherence, from TFV quantification by using data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network 082 study, which measured both TFV-DP and TFV concentrations. Two, four and seven pills per week reduced HIV incidence by 59.3% (95% credible interval (CrI) 29.9-95.8%), 83.8% (95% CI 51.7-99.8%) and 95.9% (95% CI 72.6-100%), respectively. Our adherence-efficacy curve can be validated and updated by HIV prevention studies that directly measure TFV-DP concentrations. The curve suggests that high adherence confers high protection in cisgender women. However, the lower efficacy with partial adherence highlights the need for new PrEP products and interventions to increase adherence.

Partner testing with HIV self-test distribution by Ugandan pregnant women living with HIV: a randomized trial.

INTRODUCTION: Secondary distribution of HIV self-tests (HIVST) by HIV-negative pregnant women to male partners increases men's testing rates. We examined whether this strategy promotes male partner testing for pregnant women living with HIV (PWLHIV). METHODS: We conducted an open-label individually randomized trial in Kampala, Uganda, in which PWLHIV ≥18 years who reported a partner of unknown HIV status were randomized 2:1 to secondary distribution of HIVST for male partner(s) or standard-of-care (SOC; invitation letter to male partner for fast-track testing). Women were followed until 12 months post-partum. Male partners were offered confirmatory HIV testing and facilitated linkage to antiretroviral treatment (ART) or oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Using intention-to-treat analysis, primary outcomes were male partner testing at the clinic and initiation on PrEP or ART evaluated through 12 months post-partum (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03484533). RESULTS: From November 2018 to March 2020, 500 PWLHIV were enrolled with a median age of 27 years (interquartile range [IQR] 23-30); 332 were randomized to HIVST and 168 to SOC with 437 PWLHIV (87.4%) completing 12 months follow-up post-partum. Of 236 male partners who tested at the clinic and enrolled (47.2%), their median age was 31 years (IQR 27-36), 45 (88.3%) men with HIV started ART and 113 (61.1%) HIV-negative men started PrEP. There was no intervention effect on male partner testing (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-1.37) or time to ART or PrEP initiation (HR 0.96; 95% CI: 0.69-1.33). Two male partners and two infants acquired HIV for an incidence of 0.99 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 0.12-3.58) and 1.46 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 0.18%-5.28%), respectively. Social harms related to study participation were experienced by six women (HIVST = 5, SOC = 1). CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of the partners of Ugandan PWLHIV tested for HIV with similar HIV testing rates and linkage to ART or PrEP among the secondary distribution of HIVST and SOC arms. Although half of men became aware of their HIV serostatus and linked to services, additional strategies to reach male partners of women in antenatal care are needed to increase HIV testing and linkage to services among men.

The Effect of Disclosure of PrEP Use on Adherence Among African Young Women in an Open-Label PrEP Study: Findings from HPTN 082.

To develop effective PrEP adherence interventions, it is important to understand the interplay between disclosure of pre-exposure prophalxis (PrEP) use, social support, and PrEP adherence. We leveraged the HPTN 082 study conducted among 451 adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) (ages 16 to 25 years, 2016 to 2019) in South Africa and Zimbabwe. Among the 349 who had month three disclosure and PrEP adherence data, 60% (n = 206) felt supported by adults, and 89% (n = 309) disclosed PrEP use to at least one person. PrEP disclosure was not associated with increased adherence, measured by intracellular tenofovir-diphosphate concentrations in dried blood spots. Women who reported having supportive adults, and disclosed to their parents, had higher adherence at 6 months with an increase of 177 fmol/punch (95% CI 12 to 343, t = 2.11, p = 0.04). PrEP interventions that help AGYW identify supportive relationships and effectively communicate the benefits of PrEP may improve PrEP adherence.Clinicaltrials.gov ID number: NCT02732730.

A decision support tool has similar high PrEP uptake and increases early PrEP persistence in adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: results from a randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: African adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) have high rates of HIV acquisition and are a priority population for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). PrEP implementation has been limited by AGYW's low perceived HIV risk and provider demands. A decision support tool (DST) with information about PrEP could improve clients' risk perception, knowledge about PrEP, informed decision-making and motivation to use PrEP based on their risk, facilitating PrEP delivery in primary healthcare (PHC) clinics. METHODS: We designed MyPrEP, a client-facing DST about PrEP and HIV prevention, with youth-friendly information and images. The impact of the MyPrEP tool was assessed among HIV-negative women aged 18-25 years presenting to a PHC clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa from March 2019 to 2020. AGYW were randomized by day to the DST or a general health website as the control condition. A clinician blinded to DST versus control allocation provided standard of care counselling about PrEP, offered PrEP, administered a questionnaire and conducted sexually transmitted infection testing. The primary outcome was PrEP initiation and the secondary outcome was PrEP persistence at 1 month, determined by pharmacy dispensation records. RESULTS: Of 386 AGYW screened, 353 were randomized (DST n = 172, control n = 181) with a median age of 21 years (interquartile range [IQR] 20, 23) and 56% (199/353) attending the clinic for HIV testing, 46% (164/353) using contraception, 15% (53/353) using condoms consistently and 37% (108/353) with a curable sexually transmitted infection. PrEP was initiated by 97% in the DST group and 94% in the control group (OR 1.79; 95% confidence interval, CI = 0.79-1.53), of whom two-thirds planned to continue PrEP until they decided if they liked PrEP. At 1 month, PrEP persistence was 19% in the DST and 10% in the control group (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.08-3.69). Ninety-nine percent randomized to the DST reported satisfaction with MyPrEP. CONCLUSIONS: Among AGYW attending a South African PHC clinic, PrEP uptake was >90% with two-fold higher PrEP persistence at 1 month in those randomized to use the MyPrEP DST. Given the need for strategies to support PrEP implementation and improve low PrEP persistence among African AGYW, a PrEP DST warrants further evaluation.

Community- and individual-level correlates of HIV incidence in HPTN 071 (PopART).

INTRODUCTION: Universal HIV testing and treatment aims to identify all people living with HIV and offer them treatment, decreasing the number of individuals with unsuppressed HIV and thus reducing HIV transmission. Longitudinal follow-up of individuals with and without HIV in a cluster-randomized trial of communities allowed for the examination of community- and individual-level measures of HIV risk and HIV incidence. METHODS: HPTN 071 (PopART) was a three-arm cluster-randomized trial conducted between 2013 and 2018 that evaluated the use of two combination HIV prevention strategies implemented at the community level to reduce HIV incidence compared to the standard of care. The trial, conducted in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa, measured HIV incidence over 36 months in a population cohort of ∼2000 randomly selected adults per community aged 18-44. Multilevel models were used to assess the association between HIV incidence and community- and individual-level socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors, as well as prevalence of detectable virus (PDV) defined as the estimated proportion of the community with unsuppressed viral load. RESULTS: Overall HIV incidence was 1.49/100 person-years. Communities with less financial wealth and communities with more individuals reporting having sex partners outside of the community or two or more sexual partners had higher HIV incidence. PDV at 2 years of study was 6.8% and was strongly associated with HIV incidence: for every 50% relative reduction in community PDV, there was a 49% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 37%-58%, p < 0.001) relative decrease in HIV incidence. At the individual level; socio-economic status, AUDIT score, medical male circumcision and certain sexual behaviours were associated with HIV risk. CONCLUSIONS: Using data from the PopART randomized trial, we found several associations of HIV incidence with community-level measures reflecting the sexual behaviour and socio-economic make-up of each community. We also found a strong association between community PDV and HIV incidence supporting the use of PDV as a tool for monitoring progress in controlling the epidemic. Lastly, we found significant individual-level factors of HIV risk that are generally consistent with previous HIV epidemiological research. These results have the potential to identify high high-incidence communities, inform structural-level interventions, and optimize individual-level interventions for HIV prevention. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01900977, HPTN 071 [PopArt].

Perspectives on Design Approaches for HIV Prevention Efficacy Trials.

The challenge of designing future HIV prevention efficacy trials in a rapidly evolving HIV prevention landscape was explored through a series of virtual stakeholder's engagement meetings convened online between October 2020 and April 2021. A broad array of stakeholders from the HIV prevention research community reviewed current trial designs and lessons learned, explored issues specific to unique product classes, and concluded with specialist-focused examinations of statistical design concepts and the importance of community engagement in research. The aim was to reflect on current approaches and evaluate new trial design approaches for evaluating efficacy of a candidate prevention strategy in the context of an active-controlled trial, which does not include a placebo arm. In this report, we provide a summary of the discussion points that included gaps in understanding and logical next steps in the prevention research pathway. The technical challenges involved in the statistical design approaches are described in a companion article.

Population-level impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering long-acting injectable PrEP to MSM in three high-resource settings: a model comparison analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) demonstrated superiority to daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the HPTN 083/084 trials. We compared the potential impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA to men who have sex with men (MSM) in Atlanta (US), Montreal (Canada) and the Netherlands, settings with different HIV epidemics. METHODS: Three risk-stratified HIV transmission models were independently parameterized and calibrated to local data. In Atlanta, Montreal and the Netherlands, the models, respectively, estimated mean TDF/FTC coverage starting at 29%, 7% and 4% in 2022, and projected HIV incidence per 100 person-years (PY), respectively, decreasing from 2.06 to 1.62, 0.08 to 0.03 and 0.07 to 0.001 by 2042. Expansion of PrEP coverage was simulated by recruiting new CAB-LA users and by switching different proportions of TDF/FTC users to CAB-LA. Population effectiveness and efficiency of PrEP expansions were evaluated over 20 years in comparison to baseline scenarios with TDF/FTC only. RESULTS: Increasing PrEP coverage by 11 percentage points (pp) from 29% to 40% by 2032 was expected to avert a median 36% of new HIV acquisitions in Atlanta. Substantially larger increases (by 33 or 26 pp) in PrEP coverage (to 40% or 30%) were needed to achieve comparable reductions in Montreal and the Netherlands, respectively. A median 17 additional PYs on PrEP were needed to prevent one acquisition in Atlanta with 40% PrEP coverage, compared to 1000+ in Montreal and 4000+ in the Netherlands. Reaching 50% PrEP coverage by 2032 by recruiting CAB-LA users among PrEP-eligible MSM could avert >45% of new HIV acquisitions in all settings. Achieving targeted coverage 5 years earlier increased the impact by 5-10 pp. In the Atlanta model, PrEP expansions achieving 40% and 50% coverage reduced differences in PrEP access between PrEP-indicated White and Black MSM from 23 to 9 pp and 4 pp, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving high PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA can impact the HIV epidemic substantially if rolled out without delays. These PrEP expansions may be efficient in settings with high HIV incidence (like Atlanta) but not in settings with low HIV incidence (like Montreal and the Netherlands).